GLP-1 Tracker: Full Update Log

Full update log

• Oct 8, 2026UBT251 (United Laboratories / Novo Nordisk): the China Phase 2 obesity trial was published in Cell Metabolism on 7 October 2026. In 205 adults with overweight or obesity and no type 2 diabetes, mean weight loss at 24 weeks was 13.6% at 2 mg, 16.2% and 19.7% at 4 mg (two starting doses, 25 people each) and 18.7% at 6 mg, against 2.0% on placebo, with no plateau by week 24. Participants were young (mean age 34, mean BMI 33.1) and all in China, and there was no active comparator. Diarrhoea, nausea and vomiting were the most common side effects; adverse events of grade 3 or higher rose with dose, from 3.9% to 13.0%, against 4.0% on placebo; one person on UBT251 stopped treatment for an adverse event. This replaces the earlier entry, which had only 12-week Phase 1 data in kilograms. ClinicalTrials.gov now lists two China Phase 3 trials in type 2 diabetes as recruiting, so the molecule moves from Phase 2 to Phase 3 on this page; Novo's own trials outside China remain Phase 2. The semaglutide-controlled Phase 2 trial in type 2 diabetes is still unreported.
• Oct 8, 2026Petrelintide (Zealand / Roche): Zealand announced topline results of ZUPREME-2 on 7 October 2026. This Phase 2 trial enrolled 220 US adults with overweight or obesity and type 2 diabetes, who got one of three weekly doses or placebo for 28 weeks. Mean weight loss was 7.4% to 9.2% across the doses, against 2.0% on placebo. HbA1c fell by up to 0.65% on petrelintide and rose 0.23% on placebo. 1.9% of people on petrelintide stopped for gastrointestinal side effects, against 1.7% on placebo. These are company figures from a press release; doses and per-arm numbers were not given, and full results are promised for a scientific conference. The weight-loss figure in the table is unchanged: it comes from ZUPREME-1, the 42-week trial in people without diabetes.
• Oct 7, 2026Eloralintide (Lilly): the company's slides for analysts at EASD, dated 30 September 2026, name the Phase 3 programme for EloraTZP as AMPLIFY and say it starts in 2026, using a single co-formulated injection and a revised dose-escalation schedule. AMPLIFY-1 compares EloraTZP with tirzepatide alone and eloralintide alone in people with a BMI above 35 and no type 2 diabetes. AMPLIFY-2 compares EloraTZP with tirzepatide in people with type 2 diabetes. AMPLIFY-3 repeats the three-way comparison in people with a BMI of 27 to under 35 and no type 2 diabetes. The slide gives no trial sizes, doses or endpoints. None of the three was listed on ClinicalTrials.gov as of 7 October 2026.
• Oct 7, 2026VK2735 (Viking): the company announced on 6 October 2026 that Part 2 of its maintenance study has started. About 195 adults with obesity get weekly injections of VK2735 or placebo for 21 weeks, then switch to a daily tablet, a weekly tablet, a monthly injection, an injection every other week, or placebo through week 33. The study's stated goals are safety, tolerability and drug levels; weight change is an exploratory endpoint. Viking expects results in 2027. The Part 1 entry had said the study was not on ClinicalTrials.gov. An entry for a study of this design, NCT07838740, was first posted there on 24 September 2026 and lists the tablet arms as well; the Part 1 entry now says so.
• Oct 2, 2026Orforglipron (Lilly) now lists ATTAIN-NOW (NCT07794579), a Phase 3 trial in adults with a BMI of 25 to 29.9, a waist-to-height ratio of 0.5 or more, and at least one of prediabetes, prehypertension or predyslipidemia. People with diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia or a history of obesity are excluded, so this is a prevention trial. It plans to enrol 2,001 people, randomised and double-blind against placebo. The primary outcome is the time to a first obesity-related complication (type 2 diabetes, hypertension or dyslipidemia) or to class 1 obesity (a BMI of 30 or more) over 104 weeks. Two of its three arms switch between orforglipron and placebo during the trial; the registry does not say when. It started on 26 August 2026 and is recruiting, with an estimated primary completion date of August 2029. No results exist yet.
• Oct 2, 2026Yesterday's SYNCHRONIZE-2 entry used the company release, whose figures were efficacy-estimand numbers for people who stayed on treatment (up to 13.1% weight loss vs 3.1% on placebo). The NEJM paper's primary analysis uses the treatment-regimen estimand, which counts everyone randomised: 8.2% mean weight loss on 3.6 mg and 9.8% on 6.0 mg against 3.9% on placebo at 76 weeks, in 752 adults with type 2 diabetes and a BMI of 27 or above. 57.6% and 64.5% lost 5% or more, against 35.1%. HbA1c fell 0.9 and 0.8 points against 0.2, from a baseline of 7.4%. Gastrointestinal side effects were reported by 72.8% and 77.7%, against 38.6%. This is the result to set beside SYNCHRONIZE-1's 13.0% vs 5.4% in people without diabetes; the weight loss in people with diabetes was smaller. These figures come from the paper's abstract; the full paper has not been read. The survodutide headline number on this tracker stays at 13.0%.
• Oct 1, 2026Zealand Pharma and Boehringer Ingelheim reported SYNCHRONIZE-2, the Phase 3 trial of survodutide in 755 adults with obesity or overweight and type 2 diabetes, at EASD on 1 October 2026, with a simultaneous NEJM paper. Over 76 weeks, weekly survodutide at 3.6 mg or 6.0 mg produced up to 13.1% weight loss against 3.1% on placebo, and 79.3% of people on survodutide lost 5% or more against 32.7%. Those are efficacy-estimand figures, for people who stayed on treatment. SYNCHRONIZE-1's published primary was the treatment-regimen estimand, which counts everyone randomised, and it read 13.0% against 5.4% there, against 16.6% and 3.2% on efficacy. The treatment-regimen result for SYNCHRONIZE-2 is not in the company release, so it should not be set beside SYNCHRONIZE-1's 13.0% yet. HbA1c fell 1.21 points from 7.4% against 0.03 on placebo. Tolerability is the cost: 18% stopped survodutide because of stomach side effects against 1.2% on placebo, mostly during dose escalation. These figures come from the company release; the paper has not been read for this update. The survodutide headline number on this tracker stays at 13.0%, the treatment-regimen result in people without diabetes.
• Oct 1, 2026ACHIEVE-4, the cardiovascular safety trial of orforglipron (Lilly), was published in The Lancet on 30 September 2026 and presented at EASD. It randomised 2,749 adults with type 2 diabetes at increased cardiovascular risk, 86% of whom had established cardiovascular disease, to orforglipron up to 17.2 mg once daily or titrated insulin glargine, open-label, for a median of 2 years. The primary outcome, a four-part composite of cardiovascular death, heart attack, stroke and hospitalisation for unstable angina, occurred in 4.2% on orforglipron against 5.0% on glargine (HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.59-1.20). The trial was designed to show orforglipron was not worse than glargine, and it did; because the interval crosses 1, it does not show a cardiovascular benefit. Deaths were 19 on orforglipron and 43 on glargine, all but one judged unrelated to treatment. Gastrointestinal side effects were far more common on orforglipron (62.1% against 14.2%), and clinically significant hypoglycaemia less common (6.8% against 19.2%). Lilly's release reports A1C down 1.6% against 1.0% and weight down 8.8% against up 1.7% at 52 weeks. The paper is Lilly-funded and five of its authors are Lilly employees. This update uses the published abstract and Lilly's release; the full text has not been read.
• Sep 30, 2026Lilly reported topline Phase 2b results for EloraTZP, its amylin agonist eloralintide combined with tirzepatide, at EASD on 30 September 2026. The trial enrolled 367 adults with obesity or overweight and type 2 diabetes across ten groups of about 37 people each, and ran 48 weeks, with the two drugs given as separate weekly injections. For people who stayed on treatment (the efficacy estimand), the top combination, eloralintide 9 mg plus tirzepatide 15 mg, produced -23.3% body weight and a 2.9-point fall in HbA1c, against -14.8% and 2.4 points on tirzepatide 15 mg alone and -3.0% and 0.3 points on placebo. Eloralintide alone produced 8.2% to 12.3%, with the 9 mg dose slightly below 6 mg. The primary endpoint was the combination against placebo; the comparison with tirzepatide alone was secondary. Tolerability is the open question: stomach side effects were more common on the combinations, and 10.8% to 27.0% of people on a combination stopped because of side effects, against 2.9% on tirzepatide alone (and 16.7% on placebo). Lilly has not said which combination group had the highest dropout. Lilly plans to start Phase 3 of a single-injection version by the end of 2026 with a slower dose escalation. These are company-reported topline figures; there is no paper yet. The eloralintide headline number on this tracker stays at 20.1%, the single-drug Phase 2 result in people without diabetes.
• Sep 30, 2026TRIUMPH-2, retatrutide's (Lilly) Phase 3 trial in 1,152 adults with obesity and type 2 diabetes, was published in The Lancet on 29 September 2026. As with TRIUMPH-1, the paper leads with the treatment-regimen estimand, which counts everyone randomised whether or not they stayed on the drug: -18.8% at 12 mg, -16.8% at 9 mg and -11.9% at 4 mg, against -5.1% on placebo, over 80 weeks. The 20.8% vs 4.0% in Lilly's July topline, which this tracker quoted, is the efficacy estimand for people who stayed on treatment; both figures are now shown. HbA1c fell about 1.4 to 1.5 points against 0.45 on placebo, and at 12 mg systolic blood pressure fell 9.7 mmHg against 2.7. The paper also reports low blood pressure in 6.3% of people on 12 mg against 0.3% on placebo, three cases of pancreatitis, all on retatrutide, and seven deaths, six on the drug and one on placebo, none judged drug-related by the investigators. Heart attacks, strokes and cardiovascular deaths were balanced across groups. There was no active comparator and no measurement of fat versus lean mass.
• Sep 29, 2026TRIUMPH-1, the first Phase 3 obesity trial of retatrutide (Lilly), was published in the New England Journal of Medicine on 29 September 2026. The weight results match what Lilly presented at ADA in June, but the paper leads with the treatment-regimen estimand, which counts everyone randomised whether or not they stayed on the drug: -25.0% at 12 mg, -23.7% at 9 mg and -17.6% at 4 mg, against -3.9% on placebo, over 80 weeks in 2,339 adults with obesity and no diabetes. The 28.3% headline on this tracker is the efficacy-estimand figure for people who stayed on treatment, and it stays as the headline. The paper also makes clear that knee pain and sleep apnea were primary endpoints, each tested in a subgroup, not secondary ones as this tracker had said. In 574 participants with knee osteoarthritis, the WOMAC pain score (a 0-10 scale) fell 3.6 points at 12 mg and 1.9 points on placebo, a 1.8-point difference. In 243 participants with obstructive sleep apnea, the apnea-hypopnea index fell 31.7 events per hour at 12 mg and 34.3 at 9 mg, against 9.9 on placebo, so about 22 and 24 fewer events per hour than placebo. The paper's own percentage figures for these, up to 61.6% less knee pain and 57.3% fewer apnea events, are lower than the 73.1% and 60.6% in Lilly's June release. The paper adds safety detail the release did not: at 12 mg, 22.5% of participants needed a permanent dose reduction, most often for perceived excessive weight loss (9.8%), then stomach symptoms (6.2%) and reaching a BMI of 22 or less (5.5%); 5.3% stopped because they had lost enough or too much weight, and low blood pressure was reported in 8.8% against 0.9% on placebo. Side-effect discontinuation was 11.1% at 12 mg against 4.6% on placebo. The trial was not powered for heart outcomes; confirmed major cardiovascular events were few (9 across the three retatrutide groups, 1 on placebo), and a dedicated outcomes trial, TRIUMPH-Outcomes, is under way.
• Sep 29, 2026HRS-1596 (Hengrui Pharma) joins the watchlist. On 29 September 2026 Novo Nordisk licensed it from Hengrui Pharma (listed as 600276.SH and 01276.HK), taking exclusive rights to develop, manufacture and sell it everywhere except mainland China, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. The deal is 300 million dollars upfront, up to 2.6 billion dollars total once development, regulatory and commercial milestones are hit, plus royalties on sales in Novo's territory. Novo's own release describes HRS-1596 as a dual agonist of the GLP-1 and GIP receptors, designed to reduce weight and improve blood sugar control by suppressing appetite, boosting insulin secretion and improving insulin sensitivity. It is meant to become an oral, once a week pill, but that is a design goal, not a demonstrated result. Hengrui has Chinese regulatory approval to start Phase 1 trials for weight management and type 2 diabetes, but no patient has been dosed yet, and there is no clinical efficacy data of any kind. The deal is subject to US antitrust clearance and is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2026.
• Sep 23, 2026Zealand Pharma and Roche announced on 22 Sep 2026 the start of the registrational Phase 3 ZUPREME program for petrelintide, their once-weekly amylin analog. There are three placebo-controlled trials with about 7,000 people in total: ZUPREME-3 (about 3,900 people with obesity or overweight, without type 2 diabetes), ZUPREME-4 (about 600 with type 2 diabetes) and ZUPREME-5 (about 2,500 with established cardiovascular disease, running up to 3 years). The main result in each is % weight change at week 64. The tracker now lists petrelintide as Phase 3, replacing our 16 August note that the Phase 3 had been decided but not started. The trials were not yet on ClinicalTrials.gov as of 23 September, and there is no new efficacy data: the headline figure is still the Phase 2 result, 10.7% at 42 weeks vs 1.7% on placebo.
• Sep 22, 2026Viking Therapeutics reported topline results from its VK2735 maintenance study (about 180 adults with obesity). After 21 weeks of weekly injections, weight loss ranged from 16.3% to 18.7% depending on dose, vs 0.1% on placebo. The 17.5 mg group, by far the largest (n=118), lost 17.8%, which is now the headline figure on this page (previously 14.7% at 13 weeks from Phase 2 VENTURE). Participants were then switched for 12 weeks to less frequent doses or placebo. Every-other-week dosing kept 90% of the weight lost and monthly dosing kept 85%, vs 61% for those switched to placebo. Side effects during the maintenance period were no more common than on placebo. Read these with caution: weight change was an exploratory endpoint, each maintenance group had 10 to 16 people, the maintenance period was only 12 weeks, and this is a company press release rather than a peer-reviewed paper. For scale, Lilly's SURMOUNT-MAINTAIN followed tirzepatide dose reduction for 52 weeks in roughly 300 people. The release's headline figure, 22% placebo-adjusted weight loss at 33 weeks, comes from a group of just 13 people kept on weekly dosing. The Phase 3 VANQUISH trials are fully enrolled and scheduled to finish in mid-2027.
• Sep 22, 2026Roche/Genentech reported topline results from CT388-104, enicepatide's Phase 2 trial in adults with type 2 diabetes and overweight or obesity (n=447, 48 weeks). At the top 24 mg dose, HbA1c fell 2.65 percentage points from a baseline of 8.1%, with 90% of that group reaching an HbA1c of 6.5% or below and 62% reaching a non-diabetic HbA1c under 5.7%. Mean weight loss reached 15.5% at 48 weeks with no plateau yet. Discontinuations for side effects were low (2.0% vs 0.0% on placebo), and side effects were the usual mild-to-moderate GI ones for this drug class. That 15.5% is a different, sicker population than the 22.5% placebo-adjusted number already on this page (people without diabetes) — the two aren't the same measurement and shouldn't be compared directly. Roche says two Phase 3 weight-management trials are already running, with a Phase 3 diabetes program and cardiovascular outcomes trials planned to start in the first half of 2027.
• Sep 21, 2026REIMAGINE 5 is the first trial to put CagriSema directly against tirzepatide. At 60 weeks CagriSema 1.0/1.0 mg produced 12.42% weight loss versus 9.12% for tirzepatide 5 mg, and matched it on blood sugar. The comparator matters: 5 mg is tirzepatide's lowest maintenance dose, not the 10 or 15 mg most people titrate to. In REDEFINE 9, the 1.0/1.0 mg dose gave 20.95% weight loss at 68 weeks against 2.0% on placebo — but the higher 1.7/1.7 mg dose gave 20.75%, slightly less, a figure Novo published only in a footnote of its investor slides. Fewer people quit the higher dose than the lower one (2.9% versus 4.9%), so side effects do not explain it; Novo points to flexible dosing in the protocol. Both are topline results with no participant counts and no published paper, so treat the numbers as provisional. Separately, brenipatide is dosed weekly, not monthly — Lilly said so twice on the record at Psych Congress 2026, and this tracker had it wrong.
• Sep 12, 2026UBT251 (The United Laboratories / Novo Nordisk) joins the tracker at Phase 2. Novo licensed it in March 2025 for $200 million upfront and up to $1.8 billion in milestones, taking worldwide rights outside mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. Its first-in-human Phase 1a/1b was published in Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism on 8 September 2026 (DOI 10.1111/dom.71327): in the 12-week Phase 1b portion, adults with overweight or obesity on weekly 1, 3 or 6 mg lost a mean of 8.96 to 13.48 kg against a 1.57 kg gain on placebo, with approximately linear pharmacokinetics and the usual appetite and gastrointestinal adverse events. Three cautions travel with that number. It is reported in kilograms, not as a percentage of body weight, so it cannot be set beside retatrutide's 28.3%. Twelve weeks is a dose-escalation window, not a maintenance readout. And the entry is abstract-only — the full text is Cloudflare-gated and has not been read, so participant counts, baseline weight and per-dose adverse-event rates are not captured here. The status is Phase 2 rather than Phase 3 on this page's usual convention: five China Phase 3 trials are registered (obesity, two in type 2 diabetes, two in obstructive sleep apnea) but every one was still 'not yet recruiting' when ClinicalTrials.gov was checked on 12 September 2026, while Novo's own global Phase 2 trials in obesity (NCT07395687, n=333) and type 2 diabetes (NCT07668388, n=300) are actively recruiting. Two China Phase 2 trials have completed and reported nothing — including NCT07163624, which ran four UBT251 doses against an active semaglutide 1.0 mg arm with HbA1c at 24 weeks as its primary endpoint and finished on 30 December 2025. A completed head-to-head against semaglutide that nobody has published is worth watching. Finally, the AE tables circulating on X that put UBT251's skin-sensation and myalgia rates against retatrutide's are cross-trial, not a comparison: no head-to-head between the two exists.
• Sep 9, 2026Verified brenipatide's full pipeline directly against ClinicalTrials.gov on 9 Sep 2026 (not from secondhand social-media reporting). Two studies are new since the last check: a Phase 2 trial in moderate-to-severe COPD (NCT07759245, not yet recruiting, registered Aug 2026 — GIP/GLP-1 receptors are expressed in lung tissue and obesity independently worsens COPD) and a second Phase 3 major depressive disorder trial (NCT07775300, not yet recruiting) alongside the existing RENEW-MDD-1. The smoking-relapse trial (NCT07223840) is a relapse-prevention study, not a smoking-cessation one — it enrolls adults who have already quit and tests whether brenipatide helps the quit stick, not whether it helps people quit in the first place. No efficacy data has been reported in any of brenipatide's 13 registered trials.
• Sep 8, 2026Aleniglipron's ACCESS open-label extension reached 72 weeks: participants originally on the 45/90/120 mg arms, escalated to 180 mg by ~week 60, reached 11.6%/14.4%/16.2% weight loss with no plateau in the top two cohorts, and more than a third of the 90/120 mg cohorts lost over 20% of body weight. Fewer than 5% discontinued for adverse events, and a lower 2.5 mg starting dose (vs. the original 5 mg) improved GI tolerability for placebo crossovers. This is open-label data past week 36, not placebo-controlled. The Phase 3 ACCOMPLISH program now has a topline date: 2H 2028. Separately, Structure disclosed the first human data for ACCG-2671, an oral small-molecule dual amylin/calcitonin receptor agonist (DACRA) — a new entry on the tracker, added at watch status. A single 10 mg dose produced 3.3% weight loss by Day 24 in healthy volunteers (not an obesity population) and a ~6-day half-life; this is exploratory Phase 1 SAD data, not a powered efficacy trial. The MAD portion, in adults with obesity, just began dosing, with topline expected 1H 2027.
• Sep 7, 2026New entry: bofanglutide, Gan & Lee Pharmaceuticals' GLP-1 receptor agonist, dosed once every two weeks (half the frequency of weekly GLP-1s like semaglutide/tirzepatide). Menarini paid €62M ($72M) upfront on 2026-09-03 for regulatory and commercialization rights across 39 countries including the EU, UK, and Switzerland, with up to €664M ($771M) in milestones plus royalties. The company says its China phase 3 and US phase 2 studies both met primary endpoints with weight loss and tolerability consistent with other GLP-1s, though no dose-level efficacy numbers were disclosed in the announcement — treat the efficacy claim as unverified until trial data is published. A global phase 3 program is planned to support registration in Europe and other regulated markets.
• Sep 5, 2026Housekeeping rather than new science. The retatrutide entry now links to three articles: how retatrutide compares with Zepbound on the trial evidence; whether it has a brand name yet (Lilly's RETA trademark filings); and a cost estimate of $450 to $650 a month once it launches. The CagriSema entry now links to three: how CagriSema compares with Zepbound on the trial evidence; whether it has a brand name yet (Novo's WEGOVAMY filing); and whether Medicare will cover it. Every efficacy figure, stage and safety note on the page is unchanged since the 27 August update.
• Aug 27, 2026HM17321 (Hanmi Pharmaceutical) joins the watchlist. It is a long-acting analog of urocortin-2, a peptide that activates the CRF2 receptor — a stress-response pathway, not an incretin or amylin one — given by subcutaneous injection. The pitch is body composition rather than just weight: fat loss while preserving lean mass, and Hanmi positions it as a possible partner drug for incretins. On 24 August 2026 Genentech, a member of the Roche Group, licensed it worldwide outside South Korea for $190 million upfront and up to roughly $2.3 billion with development, regulatory and commercial milestones, taking over development from Phase 2. What exists today is a Phase 1 single- and multiple-ascending-dose study (NCT07219589) in healthy volunteers and adults with obesity, running since the FDA cleared the IND in November 2025. There is no human efficacy data yet — every muscle-preservation claim so far is preclinical, which is why it enters as a watch row. Separately, Foundayo (orforglipron) launched in the UK on 24 August 2026, two weeks after the MHRA authorised it on 10 August as the first GLP-1 tablet approved in Europe for weight management (the UK label also covers type 2 diabetes, an indication still pending in the US). It is private prescription only for now, at £129–£179 a month depending on dose; NICE's decision on NHS funding is expected in November 2026, so NHS prescribing is unlikely before 2027. Finally, aleniglipron (Structure Therapeutics) moves from the watchlist to Phase 3: the first patients in its ACCOMPLISH-1 and ACCOMPLISH-2 obesity trials were dosed in early August 2026, per the company's SEC filing.
• Aug 7, 2026Amycretin (Novo Nordisk) — 'zenagamtide (formerly amycretin)' in the papers' own words — had both halves of its Phase 2 type 2 diabetes dose-finding programme published in The Lancet on 30 July 2026, online ahead of print. Both ran under a single master protocol (NCT06542874) at 83 sites in 11 countries, 36 weeks each, in adults on metformin with or without an SGLT2 inhibitor. The once-daily oral trial (n=186; maintenance doses 6, 25, and 50 mg; DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(26)01247-X) cut HbA1c by 0.9, 1.3, and 1.4 percentage points from a 7.9-8.1% baseline, all significant against placebo (treatment differences -0.5 to -1.09 pp); gastrointestinal adverse events hit 26%, 41%, and 47% of the three dose groups against 23% on placebo, with serious adverse events in 4% of zenagamtide participants, none on placebo, and no deaths. The once-weekly injectable trial (n=262; doses 0.4-40 mg; DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(26)01248-1) — the one presented at ADA 2026 and already in the tracker — cut HbA1c by 0.9 points at the lowest dose to 1.7 at the highest (treatment differences -0.77 to -1.56 pp, significant across the dose range), with mostly mild-to-moderate GI adverse events, serious adverse events in 8% of participants across all groups including placebo, and no deaths. Neither abstract reports weight-loss figures — the up-to-14.6% number in the tracker comes from the ADA 2026 presentation, not these papers. The papers' background sections describe zenagamtide as a unimolecular agonist of GLP-1, amylin, and calcitonin receptors; the titles bill it as a GLP-1 and amylin receptor agonist.
• Aug 1, 2026Survodutide (Boehringer Ingelheim / Zealand Pharma) now shows SYNCHRONIZE-2 alongside the obesity trial that was already listed. SYNCHRONIZE-2 treated 752 people with type 2 diabetes and a BMI of 27 or above, at 133 sites in 19 countries, on weekly survodutide up-titrated to 3.6 mg or 6.0 mg against placebo for 76 weeks. Its two primary endpoints were the percentage change in body weight and the share of people losing 5% or more. The trial completed in December 2025. Eight months on, no efficacy results have been released; the only publication so far describes the baseline characteristics of the people enrolled (Wharton et al., Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism, DOI 10.1111/dom.70263). It matters for anyone comparing these drugs, because weight loss is reliably smaller in people with type 2 diabetes than in people without it, and SYNCHRONIZE-1 — the trial behind survodutide's headline number here — excluded them. Survodutide's cardiovascular outcomes trial, SYNCHRONIZE-CVOT, completed in June 2026 and is also still unreported.
• Jul 23, 2026Retatrutide (Lilly) reported topline results from TRIUMPH-2 and TRIUMPH-3, taking it to five positive Phase 3 trials. TRIUMPH-2 (1,152 people with type 2 diabetes and obesity or overweight, 80 weeks) produced 20.8% weight loss at 12 mg against 4.0% on placebo, with HbA1c down 1.5 points from a baseline of 7.7%. TRIUMPH-3 (1,949 people with severe obesity and established cardiovascular disease, 80 weeks) produced 22.6% at 12 mg against 3.2%. Both figures are below the 28.3% of TRIUMPH-1, which is expected — diabetes and advanced cardiometabolic disease both blunt weight loss on these drugs — and the tracker's headline number stays at 28.3% because that is the obesity trial. The cardiovascular result needs care: TRIUMPH-3 was not powered to test heart outcomes and Lilly reports that events "occurred less frequently than anticipated" in both arms. Broad events ran 44 on retatrutide vs 52 on placebo (hazard ratio 0.82, CI 0.55-1.22); the narrower measure of cardiovascular death, heart attack and stroke ran 27 vs 23 (hazard ratio 1.12, CI 0.64-1.96). Neither is statistically meaningful, and the more favourable versions Lilly also published come from an analysis that was not pre-specified. Cardiovascular risk factors did improve clearly at the top dose: triglycerides -37.0%, non-HDL cholesterol -16.5%, systolic blood pressure -9.3 mmHg, hsCRP -51.2%. The nerve-sensation side effect seen in earlier trials appeared again but at lower rates (7.3% and 6.4% at 12 mg vs 12.5% in TRIUMPH-1), while discontinuation for side effects was highest in the sickest group at 13.5%. Finally, the expected FDA submission has moved: the tracker previously showed Q4 2026, and Lilly now says it will file in Q1 2027 while it completes the manufacturing data package. Neither trial is peer-reviewed yet.
• Jul 21, 2026Corrections pass, same day. An earlier update today claimed every percentage on this page matched its published paper rather than the sponsor's press release. That was not yet true, and the biggest offender was semaglutide: the 20.7% figure is Novo's trial-product estimand, while the published coprimary endpoint in Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology is 18.7% against 3.9% on placebo. The card now leads with 18.7% and names both. Tirzepatide is 20.9%, the published SURMOUNT-1 number, not the 21% rounding. CagriSema's trial entries still carried the press figures of 22.7% and 15.7% after the headline had been corrected, so the card contradicted itself; both now read 20.4% and 13.7%. Two claims about semaglutide have been rewritten because they outran their evidence: the knee-osteoarthritis entry asserted the benefit 'exceeded what weight loss alone predicts', which the trial never tested or claimed, and the placebo group in that trial achieved about two thirds of the pain relief; and the bone entry cited a small trial at the 1.0 mg diabetes dose whose primary endpoint was negative, which is now stated plainly and downgraded from a harm to a signal. Retatrutide's knee-pain figure now shows the 40.3% placebo response alongside it. Tirzepatide's heart-failure symptom scores were wrong and are now the published 19.5 against 12.7. Self-pay pricing and Medicare coverage for semaglutide and tirzepatide were about a year out of date, and both omitted that the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge covers Wegovy and Zepbound, not only Foundayo. Stage labels have been split so a drug approved in China or filed in Korea no longer reads as though it were still in trials, and 'pre-Phase 3' no longer covers everything from a Phase 1 asset to one with Phase 3 already registered.
• Jul 21, 2026Full accuracy audit — every molecule re-checked against ClinicalTrials.gov, the published papers and company releases. Four were shown at the wrong stage and are corrected: amycretin, elecoglipron and berobenatide are in Phase 3 (berobenatide's VESPER-4 has been recruiting since Dec 2025), and MET-233i is in Phase 2. Semaglutide was badly out of date: the ceiling is now 20.7% on Wegovy HD 7.2 mg, and MASH and the oral 25 mg dose are approved, not investigational. Several headline percentages have been corrected to match the papers they cite rather than the press releases — MariTide is 12.3-16.2% not ~20%, CagriSema 20.4% not 22.7%, survodutide 13.0% not 16.6%. Every percentage on the page now carries the conditions behind it: trial length, population, estimand, and whether it is an absolute or placebo-adjusted change. They are not directly comparable and the page no longer implies they are.
• Jul 21, 2026Added BI 3034701 (Boehringer Ingelheim / Gubra), the first GLP-1/GIP/NPY2 triple agonist to reach Phase 2 — NCT07662122, 300 participants, started 30 Jun 2026, announced 16 Jul 2026, primary completion Aug 2027. Zero efficacy data is public: the Phase 1 (NCT06352437, 125 participants, completed Oct 2025) produced only a tolerability statement. Notable as the first multi-receptor obesity drug carrying NPY2, a pathway where every standalone attempt has failed on tolerability (BI 1820237 discontinued; Novo's PYY1875 dropped in Phase 2).
• Jul 13, 2026Added a real-world bone and falls signal for semaglutide and tirzepatide: Chen et al., Osteoporosis International (online 11 Jul 2026, DOI 10.1007/s00198-026-08134-y, PMID 42435064). Retrospective TriNetX cohort of adults 65 and older with type 2 diabetes plus overweight or obesity, matched 1:1 against DPP-4 inhibitors: one-year femoral fracture risk was lower with semaglutide (0.3% vs 0.5%, HR 0.49; n=27,896) and tirzepatide (0.2% vs 0.4%, HR 0.45; n=12,808); falls were lower too (HR about 0.66 for both); the fracture benefit was larger at BMI 30 and above. Filed as a signal rather than an established benefit — this is observational, and the comparator is a DPP-4 inhibitor, not placebo. It sits alongside the existing bone-density and lean-mass harm findings: the fracture picture is genuinely mixed, not a reversal. Separately, the ACHIEVE-2 result (orforglipron vs dapagliflozin) that PubMed indexed on 11 Jul 2026 is the same Lancet paper already listed here (online-first 8 Jun 2026, PMID 42259339), now carrying its final indexing date — no new data.
• Jul 8, 2026Added HRS-7535 / KAI-7535 (Kailera/Hengrui oral small-molecule GLP-1 agonist) after the 7 Jul 2026 topline. This is a different drug from the injectable dual agonist ribupatide (KAI-9531/HRS9531) already listed here. China Phase 3 HARBOR-1 (obesity): -10.9% at 44 weeks and -11.1% at 50 weeks at 180 mg (efficacy estimand) vs -2.5% on placebo, but heavy GI side effects (vomiting up to 68.6%, nausea about 70%). OUTSTAND-2 (type 2 diabetes): HbA1c down 1.50 to 1.68% vs 1.28% for dapagliflozin. A global Phase 2 in the US and Australia, using gentler titration, reads out in 2027. Listed at phase 3 on the strength of the China-only Phase 3 — the same convention used for efpeglenatide and ribupatide. Source: Kailera press release.
• Jul 4, 2026Survodutide SYNCHRONIZE-1 citation and body-composition update. The obesity trial is now published in NEJM (7 Jun 2026, DOI 10.1056/NEJMoa2600751, PMID 42253238), so the trial and efficacy sources moved from the Boehringer press release to the paper itself. Added the ADA 2026 MRI body-composition substudy (lean mass 10.8% or less of tissue change, visceral fat -34%, liver fat -63%, 61% reaching liver-fat normalization) with an important caveat: those are MRI measurements, not DEXA, so they are not evidence of a unique muscle-sparing edge over drugs measured by DEXA — semaglutide looks similar by MRI. Compare the retatrutide muscle-sparing overclaim.
• Jun 11, 2026Added enicepatide (Roche/Carmot CT-388, now with INN; RO7795068) as a new molecule from the ADA 2026 wrap: Phase 2 CT388-103 22.5% placebo-adjusted at 48 wks (efficacy estimand; 18.3% treatment-regimen), 5.9% AE discontinuation; two Phase 3 obesity trials recruiting since Mar 2026 (NCT07351045/58). Petrelintide entry cross-referenced to the new name; combo Phase 2 NCT07589686 starts mid-2026.
• Jun 10, 2026Journal citations upgraded: ACHIEVE-2 moved from press-release reporting to the published paper (Lancet, 8 Jun 2026, DOI 10.1016/S0140-6736(26)00800-7), and the ACHIEVE-3 source was upgraded from an Eli Lilly press release to the Lancet DOI (10.1016/S0140-6736(26)00202-3, published Mar 2026). Both are now cited on the orforglipron card. REIMAGINE 1-3, ACHIEVE-5 (JAMA) and TRANSCEND-T2D-1 already carried journal DOIs.
• Jun 9, 2026ADA 2026 follow-ups: (1) Retatrutide TRIUMPH-4 upgraded from topline reporting to the full ADA 2026 data — weight -28.7% (12 mg) and -26.4% (9 mg) vs -2.1% on placebo at 68 weeks, WOMAC knee pain -74 to -76% vs -40% on placebo, 12-14% pain-free vs 4.2%; source switched to medical.lilly.com. (2) Orforglipron ATTAIN-1 and ATTAIN-2 menopause post-hoc added (perimenopausal -14.4% / -30.4 lb, postmenopausal -14.1%, premenopausal -12.8%; more than 1,500 women; presented 7 Jun). (3) A class-level cancer signal added to semaglutide's beyond-weight-loss effects: GLP-1 receptor agonist users had 41% lower incidence of obesity-associated cancers (HR 0.59, Annals of Oncology 2026, PMID 42252247; observational). (4) Heart-failure trials added: semaglutide STEP-HFpEF (NEJM 2023) and tirzepatide SUMMIT (NEJM 2025).
• Jun 8, 2026CagriSema REIMAGINE 1-3 peer-reviewed (7 Jun 2026): REIMAGINE 1 and 2 in Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology, REIMAGINE 3 in The Lancet. All three are now cited to the published papers with DOIs. REIMAGINE 2 confirmed superiority to semaglutide 2.4 mg in type 2 diabetes (HbA1c -1.91% vs -1.76%, weight -14.2% vs -10.2%, 43% lost 15% or more).
• Jun 7, 2026Retatrutide TRIUMPH-1 full obesity data presented at ADA 2026 (n=2,339, 80 wks): -28.3% weight at 12 mg (-25.9% at 9 mg, -19.0% at 4 mg), 65.3% reached BMI <30. Secondary endpoints at 12 mg: knee-osteoarthritis pain -73.1%, obstructive sleep apnea events -60.6%, triglycerides -41%, systolic BP -12.3 mmHg. Tolerability cost: 11.3% discontinued at 12 mg for adverse events vs 4.9% placebo.
• Jun 7, 2026Retatrutide heart-rhythm early signal logged (one to watch, not a verdict): in TRANSCEND-T2D-1 (n=403 treated) 7 patients had arrhythmias and 3 had major cardiovascular events vs 0 on placebo, with pulse up ~1 bpm. Because the glucagon arm can raise heart rate, it is the receptor to monitor, but trial investigators (Bajaj, Drucker, Seeley) call the case counts too small to draw conclusions; the dedicated cardiovascular-outcomes trial reads out ~2029.
• Jun 7, 2026JAMA published two phase 3 incretin trials together: mazdutide GLORY-2 (9 mg, n=461 Chinese adults with obesity, -16.65% mean weight at 60 weeks, 42% lost 20% or more) and orforglipron ACHIEVE-5 (n=546, added on to insulin glargine, HbA1c down as much as 1.88% at 40 weeks), with a joint editorial (Gadde and Heymsfield). GLORY-2 added with its trial and paper citations; ACHIEVE-5 moved from topline reporting to the published paper. Numbers reconciled to the published JAMA figures (earlier 20.1% / 2.1% press estimands replaced).
• Jun 7, 2026ADA 2026 day 3: mazdutide DREAMS-3 added (beat semaglutide head-to-head in Chinese T2D + obesity); elecoglipron (AstraZeneca/Eccogene oral GLP-1, AZD5004) added as a new pipeline molecule heading to Phase 3.
• Jun 6, 2026Retatrutide TRANSCEND-T2D-1 published in The Lancet. Early type 2 diabetes monotherapy: HbA1c down 1.94% and weight down 15.3% at 12 mg; dysesthesia milder in T2D (2-4%).
• Jun 6, 2026ADA 2026 readouts added: orforglipron ACHIEVE-2/4/5, CagriSema REIMAGINE 1-3, zenagamtide (amycretin) phase 2, survodutide SYNCHRONIZE-1, berobenatide (Pfizer) VESPER-1/2/3.
• Jun 6, 2026Retatrutide dysesthesia and UTI safety signal logged (up to ~21% dysesthesia at 12 mg in the TRIUMPH-4 obesity trial). Berobenatide promoted to phase 2 with Pfizer's once-monthly strategy.
• Aug 4, 2026Pfizer discontinued two clinical-stage obesity programmes: MET-224o, the oral ultra-long-acting GLP-1 acquired with Metsera, and PF-07976016, a Phase 2 GIPR antagonist dropped after Phase 2a data on a liraglutide background. Pfizer says it still wants to target the GIP receptor. Its only remaining oral GLP-1 is PF-08642534 (YP05002, licensed from YaoPharma), added here as a watch. The two Metsera assets tracked below, berobenatide and MET-233i, are unaffected.
• Aug 16, 2026The MHRA authorised orforglipron (Foundayo) on 10 August 2026, making the UK the first country in Europe to approve a GLP-1 tablet for weight management and type 2 diabetes. The weight-management indication mirrors the US: BMI 30+, or 27-30 with at least one weight-related comorbidity, alongside diet and activity; the UK label also covers glycaemic control in insufficiently controlled type 2 diabetes — an indication orforglipron does not yet hold in the US. Dosing starts at 0.8 mg once daily and escalates through 2.5, 5.5, 9, and 14.5 to 17.2 mg, with at least a month at each level, taken any time of day with no food or water restrictions. It is not available on the NHS; that decision follows a NICE evaluation. Primary source: gov.uk press release, 10 Aug 2026.
• Aug 16, 2026Some coverage of Zealand Pharma's H1 2026 report (13 Aug 2026) read as if petrelintide had advanced into Phase 3. The report's own wording is forward-looking: Zealand 'announced [the] decision to advance petrelintide into Phase 3 trials in H2 2026' and, with Roche, 'expect[s] to initiate registrational Phase 3 trials with petrelintide monotherapy' in H2 2026. ClinicalTrials.gov listed six petrelintide studies as of 16 Aug 2026 — Phases 1 and 2 only, no Phase 3 registration. The nearest registered new step is ZYNERGY (NCT07589686), the Phase 2 petrelintide + enicepatide combination, estimated to start 30 Sep 2026.